Hospitals Need to Prepare for the Next Pandemic

“We Need to Face Reality Here”

Back in 2018, a year before SARS-CoV-2 began stalking the globe, American scholars issued a report on the likely traits of the next pandemic pathogen.

The scholars, from the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, were on the hunt for microorganisms that could cause worldwide catastrophe — “a sudden, extraordinary, widespread disaster” that would trigger great suffering, death, and economic damage.

What they concluded: The culprit would be airborne, and the resulting respiratory disease, with a low but significant fatality rate, would be contagious before symptoms surface.

“We need to get serious about respiratory viruses. There’s a lot of focus on diseases that aren’t going to be able to change civilization in a way that something that’s spread through the respiratory route would be.”

— Amesh Adalja, M.D., Lead Author & Infectious Disease Expert

Adalja’s report, which listed coronaviruses among the most likely suspects, was spot on.

Facing the Reality of Accelerating Pandemic Risks

Now that the predicted catastrophe materialized and much of the world was caught flat-footed, experts have issued a new warning they hope will be better heeded: We must prepare, in a more serious way, for the next pandemic.

The risk of pandemics is increasing rapidly, with more than five new diseases emerging in people every year — any one of which has the potential to spread globally, warns a United Nations report.

Whether the next threat is set off by a coronavirus, an influenza strain, or another pathogen altogether, Dr. Adalja emphasizes that preparations must focus on “any kind of efficiently spreading respiratory virus” — in other words, diseases transmitted through the air.

“We need to face reality here. The next one could come at any time. It could come in 50 years or in 10 years. Or it could be next year.”

— Edward Holmes, Ph.D., Virologist, University of Sydney

Will Hospitals Be Ready?

As healthcare facilities continue to navigate respiratory threats, they are simultaneously planning ahead — exploring and implementing protocols and technologies that better protect patients and staff from airborne microorganisms.

Given the severe toll of recent outbreaks, no hospital can delay preparing for the next pandemic, according to Richard Waldhorn, M.D., an expert on hospital emergency preparedness at Johns Hopkins.

“It’s very important to prevent the hospital from becoming a disease amplifier.”

— Richard Waldhorn, M.D.

“The Virusphere is Just Immense”

Pathogens harboured by animals have jumped to humans for decades. In the past, individuals who contracted deadly infections locally often fell ill and died in relative isolation.

“Now an infected person can be on a plane to Paris or New York before they know they have it,” notes Dennis Carroll, Ph.D., an emerging infectious disease expert with USAID.

Key Drivers Increasing Transmission Risk:

Several global factors are accelerating human contact with wildlife and livestock:

• Global Travel & Trade: Infectious pathogens move across borders in hours.
• Urbanisation & Deforestation: Encroachment on wild habitats brings humans closer to viral reservoirs like bats.
• Agricultural Expansion & Climate Change: Ecosystem disruptions change how viruses interact with human communities.

“We are rolling the dice faster and faster and more and more often,” warns Raina Plowright, Ph.D., a virus researcher at the Bozeman Disease Ecology Lab.

According to the U.N. report, mammals and birds host more than 800,000 undiscovered viruses capable of infecting humans. Dr. Edward Holmes discovered 24 new coronaviruses in several hundred bats across a small region of southern China — many closely related to SARS-CoV-2 and SARS-CoV.

“We’re only just starting to scratch the surface,” says Dr. Holmes. “The virusphere of coronaviruses is just immense.”

Other High-Priority Threats

The next airborne threat may not even be a coronavirus:

• Nipah Virus: An airborne virus carried by bats, listed among the World Health Organization’s top 10 priority diseases.
• MERS-CoV: A respiratory coronavirus harboured by camels that remains an active threat.
• Influenza Strains: With 14 influenza pandemics in the past 500 years, experts emphasize that it’s only a matter of time before new, transmissible strains emerge.

👉 Read Part 2: What Hospitals Must Do to Avoid the Next Pandemic